The Economy

ArticleFebruary 2012

Corporate / Corporate consulting

Professor Adrian Fleissig released his latest southern California Leading Indicator.

Professor Adrian Fleissig released his latest southern California Leading Indicator. The update showed an increase in the Indicator by 0.78% in the fourth quarter of 2011. The Indicator has now increased for nine successive quarters and clearly shows that the Southern California region continues to experience moderate economic growth. With the 0.78% increase in the Indicator, the region can expect moderate growth in the next three to six months. The Indicator continues to closely track regional economic trends since it was first introduced in May 2000. While the Indicator continues to increase, the previous declines in the Indicator tracked the most recent decline in the Southern California region from end of 2007 through 2009.

The Orange County Register and San Diego Tribune are two of the numerous media outlets that cover Dr. Fleissig’s indicator. The good news, reflected in the headline of The Orange County Register 29 February 2012 was “Jobs outlook improves in SoCal.” According to Dr. Fleissig “there doesn’t seem to be any sign of going back into recession or slowing down.” The San Diego Tribune (29 February 2012) gave further insight into economic activity in the region “Southern California's economy is poised for continued growth.”

The indicator was first published in May 2000 and consists of both regional and national regional data. The southern California regional variables are building permits, Pacific region consumer confidence, nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate. The national variables are the real money supply, interest rates and Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index. The Indicator includes Los Angeles County, Orange County, San Bernardino County, Riverside County, Ventura County and Imperial County. His next release of the quarterly indicator is in May 2012.

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